August 28, 2014
Opinion: Putin has resumed scenario of large-scale invasion that was interrupted in mid-July
Summary of the most important events for August 27, 2014 by head of Centre of Military and Political Studies Dmytro Tymchuk
1. The entry of two Russian battalion tactical groups into the territory of Ukraine along with a parallel “operation” of Russian special forces sabotage and reconnaissance groups in Donbas, have dramatically complicated the situation in the ATO zone.
A prior announcement by the “DNR” [Donetsk People’s Republic] leadership about their “counter-offensive” gives us an understanding that Russia went from the haphazard assistance of insurgents with manpower and weapons to conducting large-scale terrorist operations planned together with the terrorists. The Russians who act in close collaboration with the terrorists seek to increase, by several times, the territory controlled by the “DNR” in one fell swoop.
And if, in the area of Novoazovsk with all of its problems, the situation is not catastrophic, then the picture near Amvrosiivka (where, incidentally, the command post of a Russian BTG [battalion tactical group] has already been set up) is more complicated. If these guys don’t get pounded in the next few hours, then all of the successes of the ATO forces in Donetsk Oblast from recent weeks can simply be leveled, and they will have to start all over again. Given that Putin is no longer particularly shy in throwing his troops here, the return of the lost positions can cost a lot more than taking them for the first time.
Actually, this scenario of the large-scale (but still not recognized by the Kremlin) Russian invasion was already launched in the middle of July, when it was suddenly interrupted at its start by the “Boeing” catastrophe. Now Putin has resumed implementing this plan.
2. As expected, the meeting in Minsk did not bring immediate success and dramatic agreements. Putin hasn’t promised anything to anyone, nor did he acknowledge anything.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reported that the main outcome of the meeting are “the agreements about reaching some real progress in the release of all the hostages in the near future, as well as to intensify consultations about the closure of portions of the border which are presently controlled by illegal armed groups.” Everyone supported the Ukrainian peace plan, even though Russia has not recognized its responsibility for the events in Donbas.
Dear diplomats, but Russia’s recognition of its responsibility – this is the only condition under which it is possible to negotiate with Putin. Without this, all the discussions are senseless. If the Kremlin says “it didn’t take Crimea,” then it is pointless to demand its return.
Source: Head of Centre of Military and Political Studies and coordinator of Information Resistance group Dmytro Tymchuk