August 1, 2014
The bad news:
1. Today is “a day of silence” in the ATO zone, declared at the request of the UN Secretary General, to ensure that international experts can work in the area of the Malaysian airliner crash.
In reality it surprised no one that this “day of silence” was only observed by the ATO forces, which carried out no active operations today, and only repelled attacks made against their positions. While terrorists battered [them] with everything they had and from everywhere they could.
Been there, done that–case in point, the “truce” of June 20-30th. If anyone in the world still wondered whether Putin’s insurgents give a damn about any truce (or the opinions of the international community, or basic moral and ethical norms), here is your answer, once again. We, on our part, had no doubts [about the insurgents].
2. The next stage of mobilization in Ukraine comes with new oddities. We are receiving signals that representatives of recruitment offices are handing out recruitment summons to everyone, and are being, to put it mildly, overly persistent about it.
Here, one must understand that the summons itself does not equal being sent off to the army. Enlistment offices don’t just call on those who will join the ranks when mobilized–they also “ring out” [check up on] other individuals liable for military service. Naturally, the Ministry of Defense should be constantly explaining all of this at the “top” level, while the military enlistment office [should be explaining it] locally, so as not to cause unnecessary commotion.
However, there are cases when the enlistment officers’ zeal gets way out of bounds. Each such case must be cleared up. Today, we discussed this with representatives of state agencies, and circulated a proposal to create a “hotline” on mobilization issues. Hopefully, the military authorities will welcome [this proposal], given how pressing the matter is.
3. The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine states [the following fact]: Russia conducts aerial reconnaissance using military aircraft and drones from the territories of Crimea and Transnistria.
It is all clear with the Crimea – it is an occupied area, and the Russians in that territory are the occupiers. But we must clearly make up our mind regarding Transnistria. For a long time, Ukraine has actively participated in resolving the “Transnistrian issue”. Kyiv has always considered, and continues to view Transnistria as a territory of Moldova, but it has always advocated that this issue should be resolved by purely political means.
I think it’s [high] time we recognized that Transnistria is a formation that is hostile towards our state, being a territory from which Russia carries out actions against Ukraine (we must remember that in March 2014, before the border was blocked, this was exactly from where crowds of subversives crept into Ukraine). This is the Kremlin’s springboard for acting against our state.
In the future, Ukraine must make every effort to restore Moldova’s control over this territory. Without this [control], Transnistria is like a Russian landmine near Ukraine, biding its time until it blows.
The good news:
1. Viktor Muzhenko, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, announced that the active phase of the ATO in eastern Ukraine might be over in less than a month. However, being a reasonable general, he did not specify any exact dates.
The information resistance group adds its traditional clarification to his statement: [this can be the case] granted that the border is blocked and the flow of Russian aid to terrorists is stopped. Otherwise, such prediction is pure fantasy. But we believe in the best [outcome], since it’s about time to put an end to this blood-splattered circus where Vladimir Putin plays the ringmaster.
2. A humanitarian corridor has been set up for civilians to leave the city of Luhansk. ATO forces ensure a [safe] departure for the refugees. Preliminary filtering is done on the spot (the main criterion is that the departing [refugees] have no weapons).
The question of what would happen during the liberation of Luhansk and Donetsk has tormented many. Security officials already announced that they would not turn these cities into a blood bath, no matter what. But, better safe than sorry. It is easy to understand people who are eager to get away as far as possible from the terrorists who have dug themselves in [in the cities]. Especially given the insurgents’ habit to fire at urban neighborhoods and pass the shootings off as “crimes of the Ukrainian military.”
3. We’ve got to develop and adopt basic working documents in the field of national security and defense – namely, a new Strategy for national security, a Military doctrine, and concepts and state programs for development of the armed forces. But, according to our data, the security forces and intelligence services are already actively discussing measures aimed not only at the successful completion of the ATO, but also at protecting Ukraine from the Russians in the future.
In particular, against the backdrop of the current high effectiveness of the Army Special Forces currently operating in the ATO area, there is a proposal to form subversive and reconnaissance groups in Ukraine that would operate in the border areas with Russia. According to this proposal, they will be able to successfully deal with all kinds of “little green men” and Russian mercenaries transferred into the area.
In addition, it is proposed to actively form a base for guerrilla warfare in the border regions with Russia–creating secret communication points, bases, arsenals, food depots, ammunition and medical supply storages, etc. Accordingly, it is planned to consider the training of [military] reserve for guerilla units.
…Let’s just say that this is an adequate response to Putin’s “hybrid warfare”. Here’s to hoping that [we] have enough perseverance and understanding to make all this work.
Source: Dmytro Tymchuk, Information Resistance group, Centre of Military and Political Studies