September 2, 2014
‘Putin needs DNR and LNR only as bridgehead for further shaking up of the situation in Ukraine’, – Tymchuk
Summary of the most important events for September 1, 2014 by Dmytro Tymchuk
1. It is quite obvious that Putin won’t stop. In this case if Ukrainian authorities thinks that calling of some European leaders to ‘resolve the conflict by political measures’ has got sense – it is obviously mistaken. We can accept ‘political’ variant only if we accept the loss of if not all than аt least part of Donbas (for the first time).
Putin – himself or using terrorists – will demand recognition of DNR and LNR as separate ‘states’ beyond Ukraine. If Ukraine doesn’t accept this he is ready to accept DNR and LNR as unrecognized (or rather recognized by a group of misfits led by Russian Federation) quasi-state formations – under protection of Russia, it is clear. This is the variant of Transnistria and Abkhasia.
In this case the variant of autonomies and other federal entities (that might be accepted by Kyiv) might be discussed only as a way to deceive international community.
Putin doesn’t need Donbas under any control of Kyiv, one shouldn’t have illusions concerning this issue.
But we all know that Putin needs DNR and LNR only as bridgehead for further shaking up of the situation in Ukraine and tearing away of south and east of our country. The Kremlin doesn’t need Donbas – it needs scientific ad industrial potential of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia, and also strategic (in terms of life support of the Crimea and connection to Transnistria, and also to take Ukrainian coasts of Azov and Blask seas under total control) territories in south – Odessa, Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts. This is a minimum program. Where the Moscow potentate will go next – that is a question.
This script can be stopped only by power and only now. We should understand that with all these Russian riches as raw material appendage, the military power of Russian is not unlimited – at least in terms of the so-called ‘conventional armed forces’. Zhukov’s version ‘Russian women will bring into the wold enough’ will obviously not work in this case – the more Russian soldiers would return home in coffins, the more unsteady Putin’s throne will become. Russian propagandist TV works wonderfully on Russian zombies only as long as they do not have to bury their own children.
If I’m mistaken and this conflict can be resolved by political measures without prejudice to national interests of Ukraine – I will be extremely happy. But now, unfortunately, I see no reason to hope for it.
2. And finally about Russian invasion. They say: Russians have sent sub-units of armed forces of Russian Federation to Donbas and the situation has complicated dramatically.
Yes, it is a problem, colossal problem. But to what has our army theoretically been preparing – including preparation of the same generals at the corresponding faculty of Defense Academy? No to the anti-terrorist operation! We have been preparing to war against regular army of the enemy in the first place. So that – precisely to the situation that we have now.
I agree, there is little good, but we shouldn’t pretend that we are being attacked by Martians the question of confrontation to which is covered with darkness. Russian soldiers have the same blood as Russian mercenaries, the are distinguished only by the absence of inscription on the graves. I don’t think that working out of algorithm to send them to these graves in an unsolvable question.
Source: Facebook, head of Centre of Military and Political Studies and coordinator of Information Resistance group Dmytro Tymchuk