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Opinion: further development of situation in Donbas

February 3, 2015

Peacekeeping contingent might be a threat for Ukraine

Opinion: further development of situation in Donbas

Here is an opinion of head of center of military and political studies, coordinator of ‘Information Resistance’ group, MP Dmitriy Tymchuk concerning the current military and political situation and future perspectives.

Concerning the further development of the situation in Donbas.

Here are several facts.

As soon as ‘large-scale attack’ of Russian-terrorist troops began to stop, Putin started talking about necessity to stop hostilities in Ukraine.

Mouthpiece of the Kremlin in the Parliament of Ukraine – the so-called ‘Opposition Block’ registered a draft resolution of Verkhovna Rada #1847 (listed on the agenda of Parliament on Wednesday), the document says ‘conducting of direct negotiations with Russian Federation’ and ‘bringing peacekeepers’ with appeal to UN for ‘disengagement of the warring parties’.

The terrorists themselves started talking of peacekeepers.

 

Meanwhile terrorists loudly declared about ‘mobilization’ (actually in DNR and LNR it has been going under different sauces since September 2014, now they only mobilize grandmothers. So that we deal not with mobilization but with an attempt to blackmail Ukrainian authorities).

In addition, terrorists started talking that they hadn’t signed enclosure to Minsk protocol concerning the demarcation line.

 

What it means

Using the tense ‘truce’ since September Russian-terrorist forces have seized considerable territories in Donbas. It is clear that nobody is going to return them under Ukrainian jurisdiction (that is why they need to reject legitimacy of enclosure to Minsk agreements registered in September 2014).

Meanwhile, Putin’s potential of further offensive activity currently fades away.

 

Mr.Tymchuk sees the script that is convenient for Putin today (and apparently it starts coming to life).

First of all, Putin needs to keep the occupied territories.

The optimal variant – introducing peacekeepers (it is clear that it should be mostly Russian, using contingents from Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia as support group, but under Russian leadership). Russian Federation would block any other formats on the level of UN Security Council.

 

The peculiarity of this scenario is that it is universal for Moscow.

In case of start of ‘peacekeeping operations’ Kyiv loses any possibility to conduct its military operation on liberation of Donbas otherwise it enters into conflict with United nations and the international community (and also untie Putin’s hands in plans to start open aggression of Russian Federation against Ukraine that ‘doesn’t list to UN’ and ‘destroys civilian population of Donbas’).

Meanwhile self-proclaimed Donetks and Luhansk People’s Republics (more accurately, the Kremlin managing them) preserve opportunity to resume hostilities at any suitable moment – they are not recognized as state formations on international level.

In addition, Russian Armed Forces on Ukrainian territory can be legalized as ‘peacekeepers’.

 

Thus, the #1 task for today is to prevent talks of ‘peacekeeping’. This is the right way to deprive Ukraine of its territories that are temporarily occupied by Russian-terrorist forces. Plus this varian doesn’t give guarantees that the disease of ‘Russian world’ doesn’t go further across our land.

On the contrary, Putin will get an excellent bridgehead for such actions.

Source: Facebook, coordinator of ‘Information resistance’ group, head of center of military and political studies, MP Dmitriy Tymchuk


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