Life in Ukraine. Live, @ first hand.

Neither peace nor war in future

Neither peace nor war in future

Here is part of an article written by two unian journalists – Konstantin Goncharov and Tatyana Urbanska about what Ukraine has passed through in course of this year.

 

Since April 14, 2014, when Speaker of the Parliament and Acting President Alexander Turchynov signed a decree on carrying out anti-terrorist operation in Ukraine with involvement of regular units of Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukraine has actually been in the state of undeclared war.

Despite numerous attempts to solve the conflict in peaceful way, Ukraine and International community haven’t succeeded yet. Both first and second Minsk agreements haven’t been implemented.

Here are some opinions of experts concerning possible future of Ukrainian Donbas and the whole country in general.

Full liberation is hardly possible

Relative and real defeat in military sphere

According to unian journalists, as for today experts mostly come to conclusion that full liberation of Donbas is hardly possible due to number of internal and external issues.

General fatigue of the international community from Ukrainian theme and the fact that Ukraine deals with Russia as with an enemy favor freezing of the conflict in the East.

Thus, politician, head of Center of Applied Political Studies ‘Penta’ Volodymyr Fesenko thinks that some local conflict escalation might take place, but they will seek for the formula of transition from ‘bad’ truce to some relative peace.

In his turn, advisor to Head of Ministry of Internal Affairs Anton Gerashchenko believes that the conflict can already be considered a frozen one and in future Putin will carry out tactical offensive activities any time he will need to get something from international community.

‘There is no other way’, – says Ukrainian diplomat, former consul in Edinburgh and Istanbul Bogdan Yaremenko. – ‘Another thing is that how this freezing will take place’.

There can be two variants. The first variant is freezing of conflict within Ukraine. Minsk negotiation process pushes Kiev toward this decision. However, in this context freezing conflict is not favorable for Ukraine neither in political nor in economical point of view.

The second variant is status of temporarily occupied territory for some regions of Donbas, which means freezing conflict outside Ukrainian framework, which looks more reasonable.

‘I think it would be more correct for Ukraine because it would help to avoid many political mistakes, finance spending and undermine of political stability in the country’, – Yaremenko says.

However, in his opinion, Ukraine hasn’t yet stepped on the path of freezing the conflict outside the country framework.

‘Still under Minsk process Ukraine naively tries to regain full control over Donbas territories’, – the diplomat says.

Source: unian.ua


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