Possibility of open invasion into Ukraine

Dmytro Tymchuk on possibility of open invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine

November 7, 2014

Opinion: Dmytro Tymchuk and experts of Information Resistance group on possibility of open invasion

During the last several days we observe completion of formation of strike tactical groups of the enemy in Donbas [they are precisely strike ones – their compositions, dislocation and character of activities allow us to suppose that Russian-terrorist troops are preparing for attack, not for defense]. Currently the tactical groups are almost ready for an assault. Meanwhile, Russia is transferring its sub-units to the state border with Ukraine. It arouses the question whether we should wait for: 1 – large-scale attack of Russian-terrorist troops, 2 – open invasion of Russian troops.

Tymchuk offers to begin with the last question. According to him, the fact that Russians transfer operative-tactical missile systems to the border suggests that Putin considers the variant of open aggression against Ukraine (it is quite obvious it should be under the guise of ‘protection of residents of Donbas that has expressed their will during elections in DNR and LNR).

However, Tymchuk believes that this scenario is not the main one and is being prepared as ‘safety net’ and in order to put pressure on Kyiv to prevent its active offensive against terrorists.

According to Tymchuk, we can base this conclusion on the following facts:

firstly, Moscow has not officially recognized DNR and LNR as quasi-state formations – it has only expressed ‘respect for the will of South-East of Ukraine’ they have expressed during pseudo-elections (however, this formulation allows Putin to ‘protect’ this ‘will’ if needed).
Secondly, the units of Russian army that arrive to Donbas dress themselves into the uniform of local fighters with chevrons of local armed groups, servicemen are withdrawn of their documents – this demonstrates the intension to continue activity in the form of hidden invasion.

Tymchuk sums up that we cannot exclude open invasion, but it can happen if Russian-terrorist troops attack, fail and then Ukrainian army attacks in response.

Source: unian.ua, coordinator of Information Resistance group Dmytro [Dmitriy] Tymchuk